Sometimes it takes a few days for the dust to settle, for all the threads to become untangled, and for the bright lines of an event to emerge. BearHug Camp defined the silhouettes of two alternate futures.
To paraphrase a politician’s recent comment, the fundamentals of microblogging are sound. The 140 character standard message length seems safe for the moment. But one senses there’s an uncomfortable feeling about the randomness of that specific constraint and its origin in SMS. Access to APIs and the ecosystem of multiple end clients providing and discovering unique new value propositions filtered from the fire hose of the full microblogging stream is pretty stable. But there’s a fear that access may be cut off, or that the economics of API access may change radically. System stability has improved measurably, but is still below acceptable major league standards. Real time messaging and track are still on the critical list, either absent or cobbled together as a pencil sketch (everything works for a small N).
Convergence on a unified microblogging standard is key to the foundation of a larger ecosystem, what Dave Winer calls a coral reef. Currently that convergence owes its existence to the mirroring of Twitter’s feature set. The distribution of power within the political economy of the system leaves this as the only avenue for progress. An open standard that departed from Twitter wouldn’t have a leg to stand on.
The first possible future belongs to Twitter. It’s a future where scaling a real time microblogging messaging system with track is key to success. The transition of the economic model of API access from free to one with some kind of usage tax will lay the foundation for a potentially dominant business model. As long as the tax is low enough and the volume high enough, Twitter will prosper and the friction they’ve introduced won’t slow down viral growth.
Oblique Strategy: Think Garden instead of Architecture
The second possible future belongs to a distributed network of players. The big scale required by Twitter’s architecture is redistributed to multiple players with different roles and responsibilities within a networked system. It’s not Identi.ca that competes with Twitter, but an ecosystem of sites that cooperate to provide the identical feature/function set along with a fertile ground for new innovation. But there’s a fly in the ointment, there is no ecosystem. Currently there are only unscalable instances of Laconi.ca that don’t connect to each other very well. In order for there to be viral growth in the Open Microblogging ecosystem the individual nodes actually need to form a network of connections. Today they don’t. The nodes aren’t nodes so they can’t grow as a network. Many aren’t competing against One.
There are couple of things missing from this garden:
- Name resolution across Open Microblogging nodes
- Inter-node real time public and direct messaging
- Full network real time track (Aggregate XMPP Firehose)
- Multiple clients for multiple devices
To the extent that these items aren’t at the top of the Open Microblogging project priority list, Identi.ca/Laconi.ca and Open Microblogging stand on the brink of an abyss. The “growth” of disconnected nodes is the illusion of growth. In a few weeks Twitter will turn on all services, introduce a small tax and the game could well be over. The acolytes of Open Source believe they will win the war because they have a structural advantage that over time will prevail. The metaphor that was used was “flipping the iceberg.” Except for the fact that there is no structural advantage and they don’t have a critical mass of users, nor a method to virally attract them. They’re living in a separate reality, their watches have stopped and their eyes aren’t on the prize.
BearHug camp showed us all the shape of the playing field, that the game was underway, and the ball was pointedly handed to the key players. Can they keep their eyes on the prize? From the opening gun, this game is being played in sudden death. The next move is crucial.
Sunday Morning Reading…
Some Sunday morning reading to share two days before the US election. Hugh MacLeod on Creating Blue Monsters and purpose ideas. What would a presidential election look like if Hugh was running things? Raymond J. Learsy on Obama, the Arts……
Yeah, the Open Source crowd is running like the Kerry Campaign. They think they’re ahead when they’re way behind. You don’t win an election in the long term. Users will vote when Track and IM come back. That’s election day. Is the Open Source crowd conceding the day and looking 4 years down the road?
Yeah, the Open Source crowd is running like the Kerry Campaign. They think they’re ahead when they’re way behind. You don’t win an election in the long term. Users will vote when Track and IM come back. That’s election day. Is the Open Source crowd conceding the day and looking 4 years down the road?
Yeah, the Open Source crowd is running like the Kerry Campaign. They think they’re ahead when they’re way behind. You don’t win an election in the long term. Users will vote when Track and IM come back. That’s election day. Is the Open Source crowd conceding the day and looking 4 years down the road?
Yeah, the Open Source crowd is running like the Kerry Campaign. They think they’re ahead when they’re way behind. You don’t win an election in the long term. Users will vote when Track and IM come back. That’s election day. Is the Open Source crowd conceding the day and looking 4 years down the road?
Yeah, the Open Source crowd is running like the Kerry Campaign. They think they’re ahead when they’re way behind. You don’t win an election in the long term. Users will vote when Track and IM come back. That’s election day. Is the Open Source crowd conceding the day and looking 4 years down the road?
Yeah, the Open Source crowd is running like the Kerry Campaign. They think they’re ahead when they’re way behind. You don’t win an election in the long term. Users will vote when Track and IM come back. That’s election day. Is the Open Source crowd conceding the day and looking 4 years down the road?
I agree, after watching the video from Bear Hug Camp I was left with the impression that “everyone else” didn’t have a clearly defined road map and set of goals. It isn’t as much about technology as it is about usability and usefulness. Name resolution and seamless interconnection of nodes need to be the top priority.rnrnMimic twitters functionality and then pressure them to come to the party on the point of difference. Name resolution and interconnection needs to be the point of difference.rnrnTwitters Election 2008 site is just a glimpse of the power that they have at their fingertips. If they continue to exercise their power this conversation could be rendered moot very quickly.
I agree, after watching the video from Bear Hug Camp I was left with the impression that “everyone else” didn’t have a clearly defined road map and set of goals. It isn’t as much about technology as it is about usability and usefulness. Name resolution and seamless interconnection of nodes need to be the top priority.rnrnMimic twitters functionality and then pressure them to come to the party on the point of difference. Name resolution and interconnection needs to be the point of difference.rnrnTwitters Election 2008 site is just a glimpse of the power that they have at their fingertips. If they continue to exercise their power this conversation could be rendered moot very quickly.
I agree, after watching the video from Bear Hug Camp I was left with the impression that “everyone else” didn’t have a clearly defined road map and set of goals. It isn’t as much about technology as it is about usability and usefulness. Name resolution and seamless interconnection of nodes need to be the top priority.rnrnMimic twitters functionality and then pressure them to come to the party on the point of difference. Name resolution and interconnection needs to be the point of difference.rnrnTwitters Election 2008 site is just a glimpse of the power that they have at their fingertips. If they continue to exercise their power this conversation could be rendered moot very quickly.
I agree, after watching the video from Bear Hug Camp I was left with the impression that “everyone else” didn’t have a clearly defined road map and set of goals. It isn’t as much about technology as it is about usability and usefulness. Name resolution and seamless interconnection of nodes need to be the top priority.rnrnMimic twitters functionality and then pressure them to come to the party on the point of difference. Name resolution and interconnection needs to be the point of difference.rnrnTwitters Election 2008 site is just a glimpse of the power that they have at their fingertips. If they continue to exercise their power this conversation could be rendered moot very quickly.
I agree, after watching the video from Bear Hug Camp I was left with the impression that “everyone else” didn’t have a clearly defined road map and set of goals. It isn’t as much about technology as it is about usability and usefulness. Name resolution and seamless interconnection of nodes need to be the top priority.rnrnMimic twitters functionality and then pressure them to come to the party on the point of difference. Name resolution and interconnection needs to be the point of difference.rnrnTwitters Election 2008 site is just a glimpse of the power that they have at their fingertips. If they continue to exercise their power this conversation could be rendered moot very quickly.
I agree, after watching the video from Bear Hug Camp I was left with the impression that “everyone else” didn’t have a clearly defined road map and set of goals. It isn’t as much about technology as it is about usability and usefulness. Name resolution and seamless interconnection of nodes need to be the top priority.rnrnMimic twitters functionality and then pressure them to come to the party on the point of difference. Name resolution and interconnection needs to be the point of difference.rnrnTwitters Election 2008 site is just a glimpse of the power that they have at their fingertips. If they continue to exercise their power this conversation could be rendered moot very quickly.
Yeah, the Open Source crowd is running like the Kerry Campaign. They think they're ahead when they're way behind. You don't win an election in the long term. Users will vote when Track and IM come back. That's election day. Is the Open Source crowd conceding the day and looking 4 years down the road?
I agree, after watching the video from Bear Hug Camp I was left with the impression that “everyone else” didn't have a clearly defined road map and set of goals. It isn't as much about technology as it is about usability and usefulness. Name resolution and seamless interconnection of nodes need to be the top priority.
Mimic twitters functionality and then pressure them to come to the party on the point of difference. Name resolution and interconnection needs to be the point of difference.
Twitters Election 2008 site is just a glimpse of the power that they have at their fingertips. If they continue to exercise their power this conversation could be rendered moot very quickly.
The directed social graph could be located at the client rather than the service. (your data is yours until you give it to a service that won't give it back) In addition, Track works in a more powerful way to create a social space. Imagine more levels to the network, a more distributed set of functions and roles.
I agree. I'm not sure I can give up my twitter account. I've spent a lot of time building my little community of followers.
Would it be possible for people to have a side microblog?
A few people I follow have accounts on Twitter and identi.ca. I'm sure they have accounts on other microblogging services.
The way I see it. One is not enough.
There is a huge difference between blogging (on wordpress, blogger, typepad, etc.) and microblogging (on twitter, jaiku, plurk, identica, etc.).
Before microblogging, you need friends ! The time you have spend on Twitter to build you community is big. You don't want to it once again.
And project like identica can be technically beautiful, this will not change the rule. So let's face the reality and integrate the existing services.
For example Yammer and Presently came out almost at the same time. But the main diffrence between these two is that Yammer is only for your enterprise and Presentyl is integrated with the rest of the world (Twitter)
That's it
Sometimes Twitter users compare use to a Twitter clone. Wrong. If you try to compete with them you are taking the wrong direction. You need to take that into account and build new services based on existing one and users habits. That is what we are trying to do with mixin.
Twitter has set the defacto standard for MicroBlogging. That's why Twitter has to enter into the conversation. But microblogging isn't just about conversations, it's also about moving to the real time web and track functionality.
It's possible that microblogging services could look like blogging services connected through some kind of ping server. Achieving real scale through a network of small instances is what's really interesting about the open microblogging platform.
I agree. What I don't understand is why conversations about microblogging end up being conversations about twitter.
Do all microblogging services have to look like twitter? Do all microblogging services need thousands of users?
What do human conversations look like in the real world? For or five people get together and talk about a specific subject. Either that or they BS about their day, life etc…
I believe microblogging in the future will look more like real life. That's my theory anyway.
a public message is one anyone can see, a direct message is point to point.
regarding name resolution, I prefer a model that looks like XRI and XRDS (inames). Community names could be provided for free per node, but real iNames should be recognized as well. iNames resolve to an iNumber and work like IP addresses and DNS. So my name on any OMB system would be =cgerrish
Specialization is fine, but this type of thing could also be accomplished with filters. People interested in sports aren't only interested in sports.
I couldn't agree more. We have two instances of the OMB.org flavour up and running at sportstwit.com (for sports lovers) and tickertwit.com for those interested in finance and the markets.
I don't advocate a cut and run strategy. I advocate active engagement on the critical issues that will give the Open MicroBlogging standard and a network the opportunity to live and grow. Individual instances of Laconi.ca are a nice thing. Making them nodes on a full featured network is much more powerful.
Evan, thanks for taking the time. BearHug Camp made very clear the two alternate paths. The first part of the day belonged to Twitter, the second part belonged to Open Microblogging as an ecosystem. Each of these visions are compelling and either one could come to dominate. I'm rooting for the open system because I think there's more opportunity for more players. But it's very clear that there's nothing about a “better idea” or “open source” that guarantees success. History is filled with the wreckage of companies with a “better idea.”
The purpose of this post was to lay out the two visions and evaluate them. Twitter has a clear path, they have the users and once all the features/functions are restored they can start sprinting. Open Microblogging as a network isn't ready to walk, let alone sprint. There are some very difficult problems that need to be solved. When OMB can function and grow as a network based on a open standard we'll actually have something. I'm just putting the focus on the specific steps to get to that point. Growing unconnected individual instances isn't creating nodes– nodes are part of a network. It's the connections through a standard that start to create the network.
Timing is everything, well, not everything — users are everything. One might ask if unused software was ever actually written. There's a window of opportunity, but it won't stay open indefinitely. Everyone in this community needs to feel the fierce urgency of now. The vision of an OMB network is a beautiful one, but now we need to make it more than just a vision.
Why is social networking so popular? What are people doing on social networks?
I've been doing the social networking thing for about a year. I'm on MySpace, Facebook, Twitter, Pownce, Plurk, identi.ca and a few others. I've noticed two things that are the same on every single service.
The first is communication. We humans need to socialize. Talking about what one had for dinner counts as socializing. We do it in the real world. It should come as no surprise the we would do it in the virtual world as well.
The second thing I've noticed on every social network I'm on are groups. I'm not talking about official groups created by the powers that bee. I'm talking about the ones we create our selves.
I happen to be a Linux users and geek. More specifically an Ubuntu user. Once I got on Twitter I started searching for Linux users, then Ubuntu users. I also followed geeks, bloggers etc… I was amazed that some of the people I follow were also following others I was following. Three or four people can have a conversation because we're all following each other.
Here's my thinking. Why don't we all setup our own microblogging site for the very thing we love the most? Why? Well, why not? You will have a chance to communicate with people that love the same thing you do.
Someone could setup a Laconica server for dog lovers. Someone else could setup another site for donut lovers. These are just examples. I'm sure you can come up with your own ideas for a microblog.
Are there technical issues that need to be worked on? Sure! Are there features that need to be added? Sure! Is this a reason to run away from Open Source micro blogging? No!
Sorry, one more thing: I think that work to encourage other Open Source and commercial mublog providers to support the standard is very key. I'd like to start organizing a movement around OpenMicroBlogging (OMB) that can a) provide patches or plugins for FLOSS implementations to support the standard and b) encourage some of the hundreds of commercial sites to join the network.
Cliff, I'm so disappointed by this post. If the open microblogging community in general, and me in particular, aren't able to keep up the optimism and support of longtime advocates and participants like yourself, we are — I am — doing something quite wrong.
I agree that I in particular, and probably the gang in general, too often take the future openness of the medium as a foregone conclusion. I know that it's not inevitable.
I think we all also know that the time when Twitter was the only mublog site on the planet is over, and that kind of thing never goes back in the bottle, no matter how much people hope for it.
But realistically it's in the hands of developers like myself and advocates like you to convince the general population and other mublog providers that an open-standard messaging standard is simply better in the long run for us all. And that's not an easy task — there are a lot of people who sincerely believe that their own chosen mublog platform is going to “win” once and for all.
I agree on the dev priorities that you've outlined, and most importantly on the main goal for Laconi.ca: stimulating growth of the network. That means putting viral features into each node to grow its individual size, and making it easier to install and setup nodes to increase the points in the net.
Thanks for not pulling any punches. It's not the time for it.
I was confused about “real time public” I thought you meant that remote messages don't appear on the public timeline which is true with Laconi.ca. But “real time public” messages are here now, with the caveat of some queuing. What am I missing?
Regarding scaling nodes I guess you're saying that non-xmpp nodes require queuing which makes it not-real-time
Don't you think that “identi.ca on the brink” and “there's no network there, and no urgency about creating one” are a little bit over the top? How about “no structural advantage” “don’t have a critical mass of users” “nor a method to virally attract them”. That's a lot of judgement handed down.
You did proceed from there to describe the pieces missing from the Unwalled Garden:
“Name resolution across Open Microblogging nodes”
This is only an issue for those who aren't following each other, or for direct messaging between networks, and a solution is being worked on. My proposal is “@echovar.com/cliff”.
“Inter-node real time public and direct messaging”
“public” is just a matter of implementation. Remote-messages could be public, and are in my implementation. Regarding direct messaging, see item #1.
“Full network real time track (Aggregate XMPP Firehose)”
Track is a big deal, and a tough problem. Will it be “switched on” at Twitter in a matter of 3 weeks? We'll see.
“Multiple clients for multiple devices”
Considering the Twitter API is there, and Seesmic's Twhirl for any-laconica is out. The enthusiasm for the technology will cause more clients will appear.
I'm not saying the race is over. I'm saying that the open microblogging world needs to focus and prioritize to remain in the game. To say that a network is theoretically possible isn't the same as saying the network is here and working. Twitter will be able to say that very soon.
“there is no ecosystem. Currently there are only unscalable instances of Laconi.ca that don’t connect to each other very well”
unscalable? that's obviously not true, the language used for laconi.ca is well-regarded for scaling. I guess you're talking about one of the many available I/O streams, XMPP, and that community is getting involved to improve that part of the network.
don't connect very well? this was a serious issue a month ago when Leo Laporte's site took off, but has been smoothed out. they do connect well. it's true that the usability could be improved (what open source project doesn't have that issue?).
“In order for there to be viral growth … the individual nodes actually need to form a network of connections. Today they don’t”
that's not true, I have subscribers in my instance from sites all over the world.
“The nodes aren’t nodes so they can’t grow as a network. Many aren’t competing against One.”
there is no unified view of the network, that doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It would be comforting for those trying to make their name by calling the “race” to have this view.
“there is no structural advantage and they don’t have a critical mass of users, nor a method to virally attract them”
no structural advantage? freedom is a structural advantage. I don't want to connect to my friends through Prodigy or Compuserve, I want to use the internet. Every blogger running open source software and displaying a blogroll shares this sentiment to some degree.
It's not about code. It's not about semantics. It's not even about multiple implementations in multiple languages. It's about the politics of viral growth *as* a network and not a single instance. There's no network there. And no urgency about creating one.
“Laconi.ca is not a service, but rather a technology”
Jesse Stay http://tinyurl.com/6qasck [louisgray.com]
This is complex but the Web 2.0 crowd is smart — here it is, simply:
1. a simple 200-line RFC/Spec which can be implemented in any language (I've done it it's easy)
2. the first implementation of that standard (laconi.ca)
These 2 things are [[[2 months old]]] and here is the “blogosphere's” judgement:
“Game over, Twitter wins”
“Identi.ca on the Brink”
“Twitter competitors fail to gain ground”
“As Twitter Regains Footing, Competitors' Growth Stalls”
Seems a little imma/prema ture